Minnesota can affordably reach our goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 by aggressively adopting heat pumps and planning for a smooth transition.

About the Study

Clean Heat Minnesota commissioned Synapse Energy Economics to analyze how Minnesota could decarbonize its homes and buildings in the most feasible, cost-effective, and equitable ways possible.

The analysis modeled energy consumption of electric space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying in residential and commercial buildings — while also measuring the impacts of changes in energy consumption on Minnesota’s gas and electric systems.

The study modeled two bookend scenarios: a path that fully electrified heating in Minnesota’s buildings and another that maximized the use of Renewable Natural Gas (RNG), which is a substitute for fossil gas derived from organic matter.

The Study Found

• Both costs and emissions are likely to be lower if Minnesota fully electrifies heat.

• Gas usage must decrease dramatically to reach net zero. Even under the most optimistic assumptions about its availability, there will only be enough RNG to replace about 16% of the natural gas currently used by homes and businesses.

• Aggressive adoption of air source heat pumps is a key, immediate strategy, whether Minnesota fully electrifies or relies on RNG in the future.

• Electricity demand will increase substantially—but the increase is manageable.

To Reach Full Electrification and Meet Our Climate Goals, Minnesota Heat Pump Sales Should Reach More Than 100,000 per Year in 2030.

Minnesota Must Act Now To Address Climate Change and Ensure
Affordability and Equity in Our Energy Future.

We have the technologies to make the switch for climate and health—now we need to work together to build and implement a plan to decarbonize Minnesota’s buildings that leaves no one behind.

The analysis highlighted the need for thoughtful, people-first planning for the electric and gas systems to meet our state’s climate goals.

A Well–Managed, Intentional Transition off Natural Gas Will Benefit
Everyone, Including Utility Companies.

• Clustered, neighborhood-level electrification will keep costs affordable.

• Accelerated depreciation may be warranted to allow utilities to recover the costs of capital investments.

• Increased electric demand will lead to lower rates in the long term.

• Minnesota should assist lower-income people and renters to adopt clean heat technologies.

Fully Electrifying Minnesota’s Buildings Will Likely Be Cheaper for Households and Healthier for Our Communities and the Climate.

The Bottom Line

Minnesota is well positioned to decarbonize our buildings. Together, we can create a future where everyone can heat, cook, and power their appliances with Midwest-produced, affordable, clean energy.